Advanced Statistics in Hockey, Part 2: Zone Starts and Time %& Points/60 minutes of ice time


Welcome to Part 2 of my hockey analytics research. Part 1 is right here:

https://thepuckunderthesun.com/2016/10/22/introduction-to-advanced-statistics-in-hockey-corsi-fenwick-and-the-problems-with/

Anyway in that article I examined the basic advanced statistics which were +/-, Corsi and Fenwick. This is a quick review:

+/-: Goals For by Player’s Team while he is on the ice –  Goals Against on Player’s Team while he is on the ice

Fenwick: (Shots For + Missed Shots For) – (Shots Against + Missed Shots Against)

Corsi: (Shots For + Missed Shots For + Blocked Shots For) – (Shots Against + Missed Shots Against + Blocked Shots Against)

So let’s continue:

ZONE STARTS AND TIME%

I think zone starts and time % is one of the most important advanced statistic in determining how a player is performing. A player may not play well because most of his zone starts start in the defensive zone.

First of all you need to figure out what percentage of his time on ice is divided up between even strength and special teams.

Basically, Offensive Zone Starts (OZS); Neutral Zone Starts (NZS); Defensive Zone Starts (DZS). Plus you want to calculate how much time a player plays on even strength time (EVTm%); on the powerplay (PPTm%) and Short Handed (SHTm%). When you combine these two statistics you can get a complete understanding on how a coach likes to use his players.

However if a player has a greater DZS, odds are his Corsi will be lower, because he is starting more shifts in his own zone.

Here is how you calculate each one:

Offense = Number of offensive zone starts/(offensive zone starts + defensive zone starts) = percentage of offensive zone starts

Defense= Number of defensive zone starts/ (offensive zone starts + defensive zone starts) = percentage of defensive zone starts

Remember, Corsi can’t fully calculate how a player does because a coach might start some players in the defensive zone more often, giving them a lower Corsi. I think the Panthers wanted a more offensive defense, because I’m sure Erik Gudbranson and Dmitry Kulikov didn’t have good Corsi since they were defensive players and must have mainly started in the defensive zone.

POINTS/60 MINUTES

Points per 60 minutes basically calculates a player’s production in 60 minutes. Now, some players don’t play the same amount of ice time a game.

Formula: Points/Time on Ice * 60

As of right now, Jonathan Marchessault leads the team in Points/60 minutes averaging 3.24 points per 60 minutes.

Shane Harper is in second averaging 2 points per 60 minutes.

This stat is important, because the only players who play close to 60 minutes a night are the goalies. Most forwards get between 10 and 22 minutes a night, while defensemen usually are between 12 and 25 minutes.

 

 

 

 

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